ORIGINAL ARTICLE
 
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
This study describes a newly developed index for predicting and forecasting the first (and potentially subsequent) timing of fungicide application against late blight in potato crops based on weather variables measured close to the crop. Inputs for index calculation were the following: daily minimum temperature, mean relative air humidity and daily precipitation. The decisive moment in the process of forecasting is the sum of daily index values for the previous 5 days. The index was tested in various localities of the Czech and the Slovak Republics for several years with a relatively high success rate exceeding the accuracy of previously applied strategies – NoBlight and negative prognosis. In comparison to the mentioned methods, the calculated index corresponded very well to long-term wet periods and indicated the first application date correctly. In years with no wet periods (in this case, 2015 and 2017), it allowed postponing the first application and reducing the number of required sprays during the growing season. The method does not depend on determining the emergence date, so it can be presented on the internet without cooperation with specific growers in a given locality, and thus supply information for a wider range of users. With knowledge about crop development and the degree of resistance to late blight of grown varieties, users can subsequently choose a specific fungicide and its application date.
FUNDING
This work was financially supported by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic within the framework of The National Agency for Agricultural Research, Project No. QJ1210305 and by institutional aid for the long-term conceptual development of research organization, reg. no. MZE-RO1619.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors have declared that no conflict of interests exist.
 
REFERENCES (23)
1.
Ahmed N., Khan M.A., Khan N.A., Ali M.A. 2016. Development of predictive model based on epidemiological factors for the management of potato late blight disease. International Journal of Agriculture and Biology 18: 362–369. DOI: 10.17957/IJAB/15.0096.
 
2.
Beaumont A. 1947. The dependence on the weather of the dates of outbreak of potato blight epidemics. Transactions of the British Mycological Society 31 (1): 45–53.
 
3.
Doležal P., Hausvater E. 2010. Ověření metod prognózy plísně bramboru NoBlight a negativní prognózy v podmínkách České republiky v letech 2006–2010. [Verifying NoBlight and “negative prognosis“ methods for forcasting potato late blight in the conditions of the Czech Republic] Vědecké práce – Výzkumný ústav bramborářský Havlíčkův Brod [Academic Papers: Potato Research Institute, Havlíčkův Brod] 18: 23–41. (in Czech, with English summary).
 
4.
Filippov A., Rogozhin A., Kuznetsova M., Statsyuk N., Ronis A., Platt H.W. 2015. Efficiency of a computerised decision support system as a tool to reduce fungicide input for the control of potato late blight. Zemdirbyste-Agriculture 102 (4): 449–456. DOI: 10.13080/z-a.2015.102.058.
 
5.
Forsund E. 1983. Late blight forecasting in Norway 1957–1980. EPPO Bull 13 (2): 255–258.
 
6.
Fry W.E., Apple A.E., Bruhn J.A. 1983. Evaluation of potato late blight forecasts modified to incorporate host resistance and fungicide weathering. Phytopathology 73: 1054–1059. DOI: 10.1094/Phyto-73-1054.
 
7.
Gaucher D. 2007. Mildi-LIS®, an online decision support system for treatment against potato late blight. In: “New and Old Pathogens of Potato in Changing Climate” (A. Hannukkala, M. Segerstedt, eds.). Proceedings of the EAPR Pathology Section Seminar, 2–6th of July 2007, Hattula, Finland, 22 pp.
 
8.
Hrubý R. 2002. Spolehlivost prognóz plísně bramborové. [Reliability of Late Blight Forcasting] Rostlinolékař [Plant Medicine] 13 (4): 22–24.
 
9.
Hrubý R., Čača Z. 1988. Ověření metody krátkodobé prognózy plísně bramborové [Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary] [Verifying short-time forecasting of potato late blight]. Ochrana rostlin [Plant Protection] (1): 39–45. (in Czech, with English summary).
 
10.
Iglesias I., Escuredo O., Seijo C., Méndez J. 2009. Phytophthora infestans prediction for a potato crop. American Journal of Potato Research 87 (1): 32–40. DOI: 10.1007/s12230-009-9114-y.
 
11.
Johnson S.B. 2005. Late Blight Prediction in Maine. The University of Maine, Cooperative Extension Service, Bulletin 2418, 4 pp.
 
12.
Litschmann T., Doležal P., Hausvater E. 2012. Citlivostní analýza vybraných modelů na signalizaci plísně bramboru v odmínkách České republiky [Sensitivity analysis of selected methods for forecasting potato late blight in the conditions of the Czech Republic]. Vědecké práce – Výzkumný ústav bramborářský Havlíčkův Brod [Academic Papers Potato Research Institute, Havlíčkův Brod] 20: 133–142. (in Czech, with English summary).
 
13.
Musil J., Pohořelá M. 1978. Studium možnosti prognózy plísně bramborové na základě meteorologických podmínek. Závěrečná zpráva úkolu [Studying the Possibilities of Forecasting Potato Late Blight on the Basis of Metereological Conditions]. VSUB, Havlíčkův Brod, Czech Republic, 74 pp.
 
14.
Muška A., Virgovič C. 1991. Metodika krátkodobej prognózy a signalizácie fytoftóry zemiakovej [The Method of Short-Time Forecasting of Phytophthora infestans]. Príroda, Bratislava, Slovakia, 150 pp. (in Slovak).
 
15.
Olanya O.M., Starr G.C., Honeycutt C.W., Griffin T.S., Lambert D.H. 2007. Microclimate and potential for late blight development in irrigated potato. Crop Protection 26: 1412–1421. DOI: 10.1016/j.cropro.2006.12.002.
 
16.
Pejml K. 1957. Předpověď výskytu plísně bramborové (Phytophthora infestans, Montagne, de Bary) podle minimální teploty a relativní vlhkosti vzduchu, pozorovaných na meteorologických stanicích. Rostlinná výroba [Forecasting the incidence of Phytophthora infestans based on minimal temperatures and relative air humidity, as observed in weather stations]. Plant Cultivation 3 (1): 65–74. (in Czech, with English summary).
 
17.
Pundhir V.S., Singh B.P., Ahmad I., Kushwaha H.S., Singh V.K., Virendra Joshi 2014. Forecasting late blight of potato in Tarai region of Uttarakhand using modified jhulsacast model. Potato Journal 41 (2): 95–104.
 
18.
Schrödter H., Ullrich J. 1966. Weitere Untersuchungen zur Biometeorologie und Epidemiologie von Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de By. Ein neues Konzept zur Lösung des Problems der epidemiologischen Prognose [Further study of biometeorology and epidemiology of Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de By. A new concept to solve the problem of epidemiological prediction]. Journal of Phytopathology 56 (3): 265–278. DOI: 10.1111/j.1439-0434.1966.tb02263.x.
 
19.
Singh V.K., Pundhir V.S. 2013. Forecasting models for potato late blight management – a review. Agricultural Reviews 34 (2): 87–96.
 
20.
Small I.M., Joseph L., Fry W.E. 2015. Evaluation of the Blight-Pro decision support system for management of potato late blight using computer simulation and field validation. Phytopathology 105 (12): 1545–1554. DOI: 10.1094/PHYTO-05-15-0117-R.
 
21.
Smith L.P. 1956. Potato blight forecasting by 90 per cent humidity criteria. Plant Pathology 5 (3): 83–87.
 
22.
Ullrich J., Schrödter H. 1966. Das Problem der vorhersage des Auftretens der Kartoffelkrautfäule (Phytophthora infestans) und die Möglichkeit seiner Lösung durch eine „Negativprognose“ [The problem of potato late blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction and the possibility of its solution using “Negativprognose”]. Nachrichtenblatt des Deutschen Pflanzenschutzdienst 18: 33–40. (in German, with English summary).
 
23.
van Everdingen E. 1926. Het verban tussende weersgesteldheid en de aardappelziekte (Phytophthora infestans). Tijdschrift over Plantenziekten 32: 129–140.
 
eISSN:1899-007X
ISSN:1427-4345
Journals System - logo
Scroll to top