REVIEW
Climate change and plant protection: challenges and innovations in disease forecasting systems in developing countries
1
Sustainable Agriculture, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Tengeru, Arusha, Tanzania
A - Research concept and design; B - Collection and/or assembly of data; C - Data analysis and interpretation; D - Writing the article; E - Critical revision of the article; F - Final approval of article
Submission date: 2024-08-01
Acceptance date: 2024-11-25
Online publication date: 2025-07-02
Corresponding author
Agatha Amnaay Aloyce
Sustainable Agriculture, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Tengeru, Arusha, Tanzania
Sustainable Agriculture, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, Tengeru, Arusha, Tanzania
Journal of Plant Protection Research 2025;65(2):174-186
HIGHLIGHTS
- Abiotic and biotic Stresses
- Adaptation Strategies
- Digital Technologies
- Early Warning Systems
- Host-Pathogen Interactions
KEYWORDS
adaptation strategiesbiotic and abiotic stressesdigital technologiesearly warning systemsfood securityhost-pathogen interactions
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Plant disease forecasting plays a crucial role in managing outbreaks and mitigating economic
and health impacts, thereby contributing significantly to plant protection efforts.
This proactive approach assesses the likelihood of disease outbreaks and increases in disease
intensity, enabling timely intervention and resource optimization. However, climate
change exacerbates this challenge by altering pathogen evolution and host-pathogen interactions,
fostering the emergence of new pathogenic strains, shifting pathogen ranges, and
expanding the geographic spread of plant diseases. In developing countries, these changes
are compounded by limited resources and inadequate infrastructure, creating significant
challenges for forecasting systems and plant protection efforts. The primary objective of
this review was to assess the impact of climate change on plant disease forecasting systems,
with a focus on biotic and abiotic stresses such as temperature changes, altered precipitation
patterns, and extreme weather events. A systematic literature review was conducted using
databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar, selecting peer-reviewed
studies published between 2020 and 2024. Key data on research objectives, methodologies,
results, and implications were extracted and synthesized, demonstrating how climateinduced
stresses affect components of the disease tetrahedron, including host susceptibility,
pathogen virulence, environmental conditions, and vector dynamics. The findings reveal
that climate change significantly affects forecasting systems and plant protection strategies,
emphasizing the need for reliable, and cost-effective forecasting models adaptable to
diverse and evolving climate conditions, especially in resource-constrained settings. This
review underscores the importance of developing innovative and context-specific strategies
to enhance forecasting capabilities and plant protection. Future research should focus on
advancing forecasting technologies, addressing data gaps, and adapting systems to evolving
climate conditions to better safeguard food security and environmental sustainability.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author gratefully acknowledges the professional
and moral support provided by the School of Life
Science and Bioengineering (LiSBE) and the Nelson
Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology
(NM-AIST), Arusha – Tanzania.
RESPONSIBLE EDITOR
Anna Tratwal
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors have declared that no conflict of interests exist.
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